Australia’s first climate risk assessment has emphasized the urgent need for action on climate change.
The 2025 National Climate Risk Assessment review finds 1.5 million Australians are at risk from sea level rise by 2050.
The National Climate Risk Assessment modelled impacts under three scenarios: 1.5C of warming, 2C of warming and 3C of warming.
The Climate Change Authority says based on current global commitments; the world is on track to see 2.9C of warming this century.
The most comprehensive climate assessment ever undertaken in Australia states that if no changes occur and we continue with a Business As Usual approach, Australia - along wiht the rest if the world - is at risk of major threats.
The Australian Climate Service, a government partnership that delivers integrated climate and natural hazard risk data, insights, and expert advice to support informed decision-making for a more resilient Australia, reports on these major threats and potential damage.
It notes that rising sea levels will affect livelihoods, living conditions, and cultural connections. Currently, climate risk to communities – urban, regional, and remote – is rated as ‘high’. However, by the year 2050, it is projected to escalate to ‘very high-severe’.
The report highlights the risk to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Peoples and to communities dependent on natural environments and ecosystems: ‘Remote communities, including Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations, are particularly vulnerable to climate hazards due to their geographic isolation, limited infrastructure, and systemic disadvantage’.
Other predictions include an increase in bushfires, changing precipitation patterns including droughts and flooding, more frequent heatwaves, and tropical cyclones. The biggest impacts are predicted to occur in the Northern Territory, Queensland’s north, and northern Western Australia.
The report highlights that insurance costs in high-risk areas will rise. Additional risks includes reduced water security, greater competition for water, and increased demands on health services. Economic impacts are also expected, with higher costs of living due to prolonged and widespread business disruptions.
Challenges to biodiversity
Climate change also poses significant challenges to biodiversity and ecosystem health. The rise in global temperatures, bushfires, and droughts contribute to habitat loss and intensifies pressure from invasive species.
Oceanic acidification is a very concerning impact, leading to what Australia has already been witnessing – that is, coral bleaching and a dying Great Barrier Reef.
Many species will face forced migration and struggle to adapt to new environments – those that are unable to adapt risk death.
Pollinators specifically, will face mounting challenges as their habitats and food sources decline, leading to reduced plant productivity and reproduction.
These environmental shifts threaten the balance of ecosystems and the diversity of species that sustain life across the region. These effects have an everlasting effect on pollinators around Australia and the rest of the world.
So, what can be done? The Australian Climate Service outlines several climate adaptation actions and considerations aimed at slowing the rate of climate change.
Habitat restoration and ecosystem-based management help species acclimatize to climate change. Conserving and restoring mangrove, salt marsh and sea grass habitats is also suggested to significantly contribute to national climate mitigation efforts and provide additional societal benefits such as maintaining water quality, and storm protection.
The report emphasizes that the cost of inaction is more than the cost of action. The cost of inaction which is estimated to reach up to ~40 billion AUD annually by the year 2050, will far outweigh the cost of inaction. With pollinators at the heart of Australia’s ecological and agricultural systems, protecting them must be central to the nations climate strategy.
Article by Cora Kemp
Photo by Harrison Haines: https://www.pexels.com/photo/white-ice-formation-2869610/